"Process Over Outcome"
Week Three Recap || 2025-26 NHL Season || Tampa Bay Lightning
Bolts Breakdown:
The Lightning played three games this week. After playing the correct way on Thursday and still obtaining no points, they dug their heels in and stayed true to the process, resulting in back-to-back wins over the weekend. The Lightning are now 3-4-2 on the season looking ahead to 3 more games next week: Tuesday, Thursday, & Sunday.
Nikita Kucherov, as expected, returned to game action this week; Zemgus Girgensons, injured in the preseason, returned over the weekend; and, two players played in their NHL debuts—Dominic James & Charle-Edouard D’Astous (both still rostered with the NHL team). Nick Paul & Max Crozier remain sidelined for the time being, but both players have resumed practicing with the team.
There’s plenty more to cover (roster changes, standings update, injuries, milestones, stats, etc.), so let’s break it down. Let’s start with the first game of the week:
Game 7 — (TB Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks):
The Lightning kicked the week off with another frustrating, one-goal loss. Lackadaisical effort & unattended lapses gave the Blackhawks enough ammunition to edge the Bolts. The perfect depiction of this laziness I describe came in the first period of the game: First, Lightning defensemen Emil Lilleberg took an inference penalty. Second, the Lightning failed to move on the penalty kill which allowed Chicago forward, Frank Nazar, to stand all alone, uncontested in the slot. The broadcasting team for ESPN+ announced their shock…to them, it seemed like the Lightning weren’t focusing. My conclusion? Laziness.
Isn’t that the story of the year so far? Whether it be attention lapses or pure laziness, the Lightning certainly need to get it together as those few mistakes continue to cost them in games.
It’s a shame, too, because, other than those few mistakes, the Lightning played their best game of the season — thus far. They controlled play & held zone time, they won faceoffs & shot pucks; it was truly the recipe for success — they put process over outcome. Unfortunately, mixing the laziness with some bad puck luck — the Bolts hit four posts — resulted in the process failing to produce a desirable outcome.
That meant a 3-2 victory for the Chicago Blackhawks, moving the Bolts to 1-4-2 on the season & 0-3-0 at home.
Power Play:
The Lighting went 0/4 on the power play in this game, which moves them to 4-for-20 on the season (20%).
Penalty Kill:
The Lightning killed 4 of the 5 penalty kill opportunities, moving to 23-for-26 on the season (88.5%).
Time On Ice:
Ryan McDonagh led the Bolts with 23:10 TOI (first time this season that McDonagh has led the team in TOI).
Victor Hedman (23:05 TOI) was right behind him.
Nikita Kucherov (22:44 TOI) was third.
Shots On Net:
Darren Raddysh led the team in shots on net with 4.
Brandon Hagel, Yanni Gourde, Mitchell Chaffee, Victor Hedman, JJ Moser, & Nikita Kucherov all had 3 shots, as well.
Hits:
Yanni Gourde & Mitchell Chaffee led the Bolts with 4 hits each.
JJ Moser was third with 2 hits.
Blocked Shots:
Ryan McDonagh, JJ Moser, & Victor Hedman led the team with 2 blocked shots each.
Bolts Breakdown’s Three Stars:
1st - CHI F Ryan Donato (2G, GWG)
2nd - TBL D Ryan McDonagh (23:10 TOI, 1G, 1A)
3rd - CHI F Frank Nazar (1G, 1A, 4 shots)
TBLvsCHI Highlights:
Game 8 — (TB Lightning vs Anaheim Ducks):
The front-end of a home weekend back-to-back, the Bolts faced off on home ice against the Ducks. Overall, this first match was a massive success, filled with milestones galore, highly intense gameplay, and a timely positive result.
Jake Guentzel & Anthony Cirelli each scored two goals in the game, while Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, and Brandon Hagel accomplished career milestones. Backup goaltender, Jonas Johansson, continued his dominant start to the season, and the Lightning reverted back to an elite level of defending to win the game.
After the second period, the score was 3-1 Lightning. It felt like the foundation under Bolts Nation was shaking as we watched the Ducks scored two goals in the third to tie the game at 3-a-piece…were we really about to forfeit another 3rd period lead?!
Thankfully, a power play opportunity paved the way for Nikita Kucherov & Victor Hedman to add to their career nights as they assisted on Anthony Cirelli’s game-winning-goal with just over 3 minutes remaining in the game. The aforementioned elite-level-defending ruled the succeeding 3 minutes. The Lightning dominated the Ducks as they forced them to remain in their own zone. Ultimately, the Ducks were not even able to pull their goaltender for an attempt at a game-tying goal. Final result: 4-3 Bolts.
The Lightning moved to 2-4-2 on the season.
Power Play:
The Lighting went 1/6 on the power play in this game, which moves them to 5-for-26 on the season (19.2%).
Penalty Kill:
The Lightning went 2/2 on the penalty kill, moving to 25-for-28 on the season (89.2%).
Time On Ice:
Victor Hedman — 24:20 TOI.
Jake Guentzel — 22:38 TOI.
Anthony Cirelli — 20:56 TOI.
Shots On Net:
Jake Guentzel & Nikita Kucherov each had 6 shots on net.
Brayden Point had 5 shots on net.
Collectively, the trio accounted for 51.5% of the team’s shots.
Hits:
Pontus Holmberg led the team with 4 hits.
Zemgus Girgensons had 3 hits.
Goncalves, Gourde, Hagel, James, & McDonagh all had 2 hits.
Blocked Shots:
Erik Cernak blocked 4 shots.
Ryan McDonagh blocked 3 shots.
Emil Lilleberg & Anthony Cirelli each blocked 2 shots.
Bolts Breakdown’s Three Stars:
1st - Nikita Kucherov (2A, 1,000 Career Points)
2nd - Victor Hedman (2A, 800 Career Points)
3rd - Anthony Cirelli (2G, 1A, GWG)
TBLvsANA Highlights:
Game 9—(TB Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights):
The back-end of the weekend’s home back-to-back was an upgrade from the night before. It was a near perfect performance from the Bolts as they dominated play throughout all 60 minutes of the game.
The Lightning held the majority of possession, significantly out-chancing the Golden Knights. Additionally, they were standing in lanes, blocking shots, and intercepting passes. And as Vegas eagerly pushed, the Bolts stood strong, valuing the process over the outcome, ultimately suffocating their opponent and gaining two points on the night.
Their effort culminated with an overtime victory:
Vegas won the overtime faceoff and started their attack towards Vasilevskiy. Anthony Cirelli’s stick broke during the faceoff, so he sped off to the bench, allowing Nikita Kucherov to hop onto the ice.
The Lightning were relentless on the forecheck. Kucherov pressured the puck carrier who tried to find breathing room with a cross ice pass, but Brandon Hagel immediately pressured that recipient. Hagel’s forecheck was successful as he gained control of the puck, and raced up the ice, out-skating the defense, to join Kucherov on a two-on-one opportunity. Together, they executed a give-and-go play to absolute perfection — Nikita Kucherov buried his shot, game over, 2-1 Bolts!
Power Play:
The Lighting went 0/5 on the power play in this game, which moves them to 5-for-31 on the season (16.1%).
Penalty Kill:
The Lightning killed all their 3 penalties, moving to 28-for-31 on the season (90.3%).
Time On Ice:
Jake Guenztel led the Bolts with 23:08 TOI.
JJ Moser (22:15 TOI) was second.
Nikita Kucherov (22:07 TOI) was third.
Shots On Net:
Brandon Hagel & Jake Guentzel each had 5 shots on net.
Oliver Bjorkstrand had 3 shots on net.
Hits:
Zemgus Girgensons led the Bolts with 4 hits.
Dominic James, Erik Cernak, and Charles-Edouard D’Astous tied for second with 3 hits each.
Blocked Shots:
Dominic James blocked a team-high 3 shots.
JJ Moser, Victor Hedman, & Erik Cernak each blocked 2 shots.
Bolts Breakdown’s Three Stars:
1st - Dominic James (Read About Why Here)
2nd - Brandon Hagel (1G, 1A, 5 Shots)
3rd - Andrei Vasilevskiy (18 saves, .947SV%)
TBLvsVGK Highlights:
Standings:
Click here to understand playoff pace.
Despite the strong weekend performance, the Lightning remain bolted to the rear of the Atlantic division with 8 points through 9 games. We’re currently tied with the Boston Bruins, but we have an extra game in hand.
As we’ve talked about, though, the real measure of success is obtaining 12 points through every 10 game segment. As we’re 9 games in, with only 8 points, we know, at best, we’ll have 10 points through 10 games, 2 points behind playoff pace. We don’t need extra information to tell us the Bolts have started slow — I’m confident we all know that. The reality is this: the Bolts are in a hole & have some catching up to do. Thankfully, the team is well-aware of this reality:
“I think, for us, we cannot be satisfied with these two wins. We still have ourselves in a hole and we need a lot more effort and games are coming up and, hopefully, we will generate wins”
- Brayden Point
The Week Ahead:
The Lightning have 3 matchups and a lot of travel in the upcoming week. They’ll start off with a roadtrip to Nashville to visit Captain Steven Stamkos, return home for a quick, one-game battle against the Dallas Stars, then head out west to begin their 3-game visit with Western Conference teams. Here’s how it looks:
Tuesday (28th): TB Lightning at NSH Predators — 7:45pm
Thursday (30th): TB Lightning vs Dallas Stars — 7pm
Sunday (2nd): TB Lightning at Utah Mammoth — 3:30pm
Milestones:
This Past Week:
Nikita Kucherov reached 1,000 career points, becoming the 101st player to ever accomplish the feat. He’s the second player in Lightning history to do so — Steven Stamkos did it first. Kucherov reached 1,000 points in 808 career games: Stamkos reached the mark in 945 career games. Kucherov is also the third fastest active player to hit the 1k mark, trailing behind only Sidney Crosby & Connor McDavid.
Captain Victor Hedman reached 800 career points, becoming just the 19th defensemen in NHL history to ascend that high, the 1st in franchise history.
Erik Cernak played in his 450th career game on Sunday. He’s the 677th defensemen in NHL history to play in 450 career games. Along the way, he’s laid 1,211 hits (68th in NHL history for defensemen) & blocked 626 shots (268th). Only 25 active NHL defensemen have more hits than Cernak.
Dominic James made his NHL debut on Thursday. He was drafted 163rd overall by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2022. He spent four years at the University of Minnesota Duluth, and he led the team in shots & points in his final year: 108 shots, 30 points. James performed well in his debut — he forechecked well, played smart hockey, and generated a few offensive chances; ultimately, his performance has allowed him further opportunity. He’s now played 3 NHL games — 5 shots, 6 hits, and 3 blocked shots.
Charles-Edouard D’Astous made his NHL debut on Saturday against the Ducks. He played well enough to draw into the lineup again on Sunday. In 2 games played, he has 1 shot, 2 blocked shots, and 4 hits. Most importantly, he’s been apart of two victories for the Bolts.
Brandon Hagel reached 300 career points on Saturday night. He has scored 241 points in a Lightning sweater, ranking 19th in franchise history.
This Upcoming Week:
Yanni Gourde sits at 349 career points, knocking at 350’s door.
Anthony Cirelli is at 299 career points. His 300th point will also move him into 12th place in franchise history, tied with Lightning legend Brian Bradley.
Likely unreachable, but still worth noting, Brayden Point is at 642 points & Zemgus Girgensons is at 194.
Team Statistics:
The Lightning are currently the 23rd best power play.
The Lightning are currently the 4th best penalty kill.
The Lightning are 28th place in faceoff percentage.
The Lightning are 25th place for shots/game.
The Lightning are 24th place in shots against/game.
The Lightning are 28th in goals for/game.
The Lightning are 19th in goals against/game.
The Season Leaders:
Goals:
Anthony Cirelli (5)
Jake Guenztel (4)
McDonagh/Kucherov (3)
Assists:
Victor Hedman (8)
Jake Guentzel (6)
Point/Kucherov (5)
Points:
Jake Guentzel (10)
Hedman/Kucherov (8)
Point/Cirelli (7)
Shots:
Jake Guentzel (34)
Brandon Hagel (23)
Nikita Kucherov (19)
Plus/Minus:
JJ Moser (+3)
Hedman/Cirelli/Holmberg/Crozier (+2)
Hits:
Mitchell Chaffee (19)
Yanni Groude (16)
Cernak/Geekie (15)
Blocked Shots:
Erik Cernak (23)
Victor Hedman (20
Ryan McDonagh (14)
Injury/Roster Updates:
Nick Paul & Max Crozier are still sidelined at the moment. Fortunately, they’re both practicing with the team. It’s possible we’ll see Crozier at some point this week, but Nick Paul figures to be out of the lineup till at least next week.
Conor Geekie was reassigned to the Syracuse Crunch on Monday of this past week. Through 6 games this season, Geekie had 1 assist, 5 shots, & 15 hits. Those 15 hits led the team through 6 games (tied with Mitchell Chaffee). He was averaging about 10 minutes per game TOI. Since being reassigned to the Syracuse Crunch, Geekie has played in 2 games & scored 2 points (1G, 1A). He’ll play top minutes in the AHL until the time comes for him to rejoin the Bolts. Read more on his development — here.
Click here to see what Jon Cooper had to say of Geekie.
Scott Sabourin has received several recalls to the NHL as well. He is currently still suspended for his actions in the final preseason game against the Florida Panthers. He has served 3 of his 4 game suspension. Currently, he’s in the AHL, but we can expect another recall for him to serve the 4th — and final — game of his suspension soon.
Bullet Point Breakdown:
The Lightning lost 3-2 to the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday night.
The Lightning beat the Ducks on home ice 4-3 on Saturday night.
The Lightning beat the Golden Knights on home ice 2-1 OT on Sunday night.
The Lightning are tied for last place in the division with the Bruins (we have one game in hand).
The Lightning play Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday in this upcoming week.
Max Crozier & Nick Paul are still injured — Crozier has a chance to return this week while Paul will remain out.
Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed this at all, the biggest way you can help me right now is by leaving me a message with how I can improve the next newsletter. My goal is to help Bolts Nation follow the team. Is there something more I can do you’d find value in? Please let me know!
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Fun Fact: Victor Hedman currently has the hardest shot in the NHL — 101.42 MPH. This was a one-timer, slap-shot against Detroit in the fifth game of the season.
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